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MACHINE PREDICTS HUMAN BEHAVIOR IN VIDEO

Most of us can predict what will happen just after we see two people meet: a handshake, a punch, a hug, or a kiss. We’ve honed this ability through decades of experience in dealing with people. Our ‘intuition’ is thoroughly trained.

A machine, no matter how competently programmed, has trouble evaluating such complex information.

If computers, though, could predict human action reliably, they would open up a host of possibilities. We might wear devices that will suggest responses to differing situations. We might have emergency response systems to predict breakdowns or security breaches. Robots will better understand how to move and act among humans.

in June, M.I.T.’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) announced a huge breakthrough in the field. Researchers there developed an algorithm for what they call ‘predictive vision’. It can predict human behavior much more accurately than anything that came before.

The system was trained with YouTube videos and TV shows, including The Office and Desperate Housewives. It can predict when two characters will shake hands, hug, kiss, or ‘high five’. It also predicts what objects will appear in a video five seconds later.

Previous approaches to ‘predictive vision’ have followed one of two patterns. One is to examine the pixels in an image. From this data, the machine tries to construct a future image, pixel by pixel. MIT’s lead researcher in this project calls this process “difficult for a professional painter, much less an algorithm”.

The second approach is for humans to label images for the computers in advance. This is practical only on a very small scale.

MIT’s CSAIL team instead offered the machine “visual representations”. These were freeze-frame alternate versions of how a scene might appear. “Rather than saying that one pixel is blue, the next one is red… visual representations reveal information about the larger picture, such as a certain collection of pixels that represents a human face”, the lead researcher said.

CSAIL uses ‘neural networks’ to teach computers to scan massive amounts of data. From this, the computers find patterns on their own.

CSAIL trained its algorithm with more than 600 hours of unlabeled video. Afterward, the team tested it on new video featuring objects and human action.

Though CSAIL’s algorithm was not as accurate as humans in predicting human behavior, it is a huge advance over what came before. Very soon, it’s likely to outperform humans. When it does, its impact on our lives could be revolutionary.

(Editor’s note: machine learning is another term for artificial intelligence. The enclosed image is the cast of ‘The Big Bang Theory’.)

(Get the most out of information technology. Get the most out of your machines. For this, you need a strong web connection. Talk to us. We can help.)

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QLED TV SETS

Have you heard of QLED TV? If you haven’t, you soon will.

Most TV sets sold in the U.S. are based on LCD technology, which is several decades old.

OLED sets have eclipsed LCD. OLED (organic light-emitting diode) TVs, on the market for only a few years, offer the best picture most consumers have seen. They are expensive to manufacture, though, so you’d pay a much higher price for one than you would for an LCD TV.

A new TV technology, QLED, will soon be available, and it may be better than OLED. QLED stands for ‘quantum dot light emitting device’. It may match the nearly infinite contrast ratio of OLED displays, but with higher energy efficiency and a wider, more accurate color gamut.

Quantum dots are tiny molecules that emit their own light when illuminated. The size of the quantum dot determines the wavelength- therefore the color- of the light it emits. Larger ones emit light in the red end of the spectrum. Smaller dots emit light near the blue end.

The disadvantage with quantum dots is that they are difficult to control with the precision necessary for TV sets.

Electroluminescent quantum dots are slightly different. Instead of being activated by light, they are activated by electric current. This offers a far higher degree of control. For a dark pixel, simply switch off the current. It’s much more difficult to do this with light-activated pixels, such as the ones in your LCD set. This is the biggest reason OLED displays have surpassed them.

The disadvantage with OLED displays, beside the expense in manufacturing them, is that getting a wide color gamut requires high energy consumption. Electroluminescent quantum dot displays wouldn’t have this limitation.

We’re likely to see QLED TV sets on the market within a few years. Most of the obstacles that delayed release of OLED apply to QLED , too. With the development work for OLED completed, there probably isn’t much holding back the release of QLED TV.

(To get the most out of any TV set, it helps to have a video streaming service. For  this, you’ll need a reliable internet connection. Talk to us. We can help.)

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WAL-MART TELLS CUSTOMERS: ‘CUT THE CABLE!”

Cable and satellite TV system operators are in a tough, viciously competitive business. Not only do they have to keep close tabs on each other, they’re losing subscribers to internet video streaming services that threaten the long-term future of the entire industry.

As if these woes weren’t enough, the nation’s largest retailer has moved in on their turf. Early this month, Wal-Mart inaugurated a promotion for video streaming tools with the slogan: “Cut the Cable”.

Encouraging its customers to ditch the conventional pay TV subscription model, Wal-Mart outlined four steps for doing so– including, of course, buying video streaming players and antennae from Wal-Mart.

On its website, the retailer asks, “What better way to save money on your cable bill than getting rid of it altogether?” Though it doesn’t mention prices of its TV sets or streaming tools on the promotional page– the visitor has to find the product page for that– Wal-Mart hints that the move could bring big savings: “As TV Cable bills grow even larger– families spend an average of $160 per month on cable bundles!- an increasing number of people are opting to cut the cord and slice that monthly bill by up to half. Basically, this means dropping your cable or satellite TV subscription and opting for the ease and flexibility of watching all your favorite shows and movies on streaming services like Netflix and Vudu.”

Wal-Mart owns Vudu, though it did not mention this fact in the ad.

While some video streaming platforms offer live access to broadcast networks and their affiliate stations, most cord-cutters will need over-the-air antennae to receive them. Wal-Mart sells antennae, too.

The “Cut the Cable” promotion will continue until July 31.

In most rural areas, and some suburban areas, cable TV is unavailable anyway. For these areas, satellite TV or streaming services such as Sling TV are the only practical options. If this is the case where you live, we can help you find the TV service that best meets your needs.

Whatever your TV or internet needs, talk to us. We can help.

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STUPIDITY & TECHNOLOGY

Is information technology making us stupid? As we rely more and more on mobile phones, tablets, and video streaming devices, are we thinking less? Are we less aware of our surroundings?

If we can believe a poll commissioned by WGBH Boston, stupidity may indeed be advancing as technology advances. The poll, with 622 adults participating, was conducted in late March. Nearly half- 49%- of those surveyed said that technological development fosters stupidity; 46% said it makes us smarter. Only 51% of Americans said the benefits outweigh the risks.

Younger respondents were more likely to link technological advance with stupidity. Millennials and Generation X (53% of each) were more likely than their elders to link technology with stupidity. Just 38% of those born before 1946 did so. Dr. Lee M Meringoff heads the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the WGBH poll. Meringoff said, “If you think young people are all in for technological revolution, think again. This national survey shows surprising differences among generations and their appreciation for innovation.”

Nearly three Americans out of four said technology improves education. A narrow majority (54%) said it makes us more productive. However, 71% said it makes us less human. And 54% said it undermines relationships with friends and family.

Our own view is that technology doesn’t have to make us stupid. Certainly it can tempt us to mire ourselves in trivia. We can waste our time on porn, cat videos, and interactive games. Social media can encourage vanity, and we all know people who text while driving or walking. Some people seem to be wholly unaware that a world exists outside of their electronic devices.

Our parents and our grandparents warned us about TV and radio, citing most of the same concerns, but most of us managed to lead normal and productive lives anyway. If we are wise, we will use information technology to inform ourselves and enhance our productivity. We don’t have to be oblivious to our surroundings. Our machines don’t have to rule us.

(To get the most out of information technology, you need a reliable internet connection. Is yours adequate? If it isn’t, talk to us. We can help.)

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WARRIORS WIN WITH DATA

Winning in professional sports, we’ve long been told, is a result of talent and hard work. Lately, it also requires information technology.

Nobody knows this better than the NBA’s Golden State Warriors, who’ve used advanced analytics to pull themselves up from near the league cellar in the 2009-2010 season, when they finished in 13th place in the Western Conference. Last year, the Warriors posted a blistering 67 wins in the regular season, and went on to win the World Championship. This year, they won a record 73 games in the regular season, eclipsing the previous record (72) set by the Chicago Bulls in 1996.  They have stormed through the playoffs, and are heavy favorites to win their second straight title.

The dramatic reversal of Golden State’s fortunes began in 2010, when Joe Lacob, a venture capitalist, and Peter Gruber, a Hollywood producer, bought the team. At the time, the NBA had just begun experimenting with analytics, much as professional baseball had been doing.

The team installed SportVU, a six-camera motion-sensing system, which could track each player’s movements 25 times per second. It enabled tracking and analysis of each player’s shots, passes, dribbling, defensive moves, speed, distance between players, and distance run during the game.

The Warriors were slow to figure out how to wring victories out of the data. In the 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 seasons, they won fewer than half of their games, and failed to qualify for the playoffs. Eventually, though, they learned how to use the data to improve training and game strategy. For the 2013-2014 season, they won 57% of their regular season games. The following year they won 62%. In the 2014-2015 season, they won 82%, and this year they won an eye-popping 89%.

The Warriors are noted for unselfish play. The team’s use of video, electronic sensors, and analytics have been instrumental in enhancing its style and its performance on the court.. Marc Spears, a senior NBA writer for ESPN, said, “In some  shape or fashion, every team has become heavy on using tech. But the Warriors are having tremendous success with it.”

Coaches and team managers need to monitor every player’s level of fatigue and potential for injury. To get this information, they have the players wear small sensors that track their movements during practice. The monitors, worn between the shoulders under compression shirts, sense pressure on ankles and knees, and whether the players are moving at normal levels of fitness. Klay Thompson, a shooting guard, said, “Back in the day, we were just able to say, ‘He’s breathing hard; he might need to rest.’ Now they (the coaches) can actually see if you need a day of rest, or if you need to go harder.”

Golden State coaches believe brain function is as important as physical condition. With this is mind, their have players fitted with electrodes on their faces and hands. The electrodes measure neuron activity in the brain– data that’s critical in measuring physical and mental fatigue, which the players themselves might not recognize.

The team constantly explores any electronic technology that might provide a competitive advantage. This includes sleep masks that combat jet lag; smart clothing that measures breathing, heart rate, and muscle use; and head phones that improve muscle memory by transmitting electrical signals to the brain.

Golden State’s minor league team, the Santa Cruz Warriors, is often a guinea pig for new technologies, and it, too, benefits from the data. Last year, the Santa Cruz Warriors won the championship for their league.

To win in life, you also need data. If your internet service isn’t keeping up, talk to us. We can help.

(Editor’s note:  As we post this, the Golden State Warriors are ahead 3-1 in the NBA Championship Series. With one more win, they can take their second straight title.)

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GEN4 FROM HUGHESNET

We all need speed. For this reason, HughesNet has worked for forty years to advance satellite technology.  Its Gen4 satellite internet service is one example of the company’s commitment to innovation.

Gen4 is available anywhere in the U.S., as long as your dish has a direct line of sight to the southern sky. It is much faster than competing rural internet services, and it won’t need a phone connection. Several plans are available, with download speeds from 5 megabits per second (5 MB.S) to 15 MB/S.

The data allotments are much more generous than previous generations of satellite internet offered. The basic tier, Prime Plus, allows 10 gigabytes (GB) per month. The premium tier, Ultra, allows a full 50 GB per month. With all Gen4 plans, an additional 50 GB per month is available during off-peak hours: 2:00 a.m. to 8:00 a.m. If you’re about to bump against your data cap, you can buy an additional allotment, $10.00 for each additional GB.

With Prime Plus, you can open up to five e-mail accounts. With the other three plans, you can open as many as ten.

With each of the plans, you get free standard installation and live technical support.

All HughesNet plans are compatible with Windows or Mac operating systems. Windows users will need Windows Vista, Windows 7, or Windows 8. HughesNet will also work with Windows 10 soon. Mac users will need OS 10.7 (Lion), OS 10.8 (Mountain Lion), or OS 10.9 (Mavericks).

Your computer will need ethernet network capability. If you wish to get your HughesNet service on a mobile device, you will need a wireless router.

In most cases, you can expect your HughesNet Gen4 internet service to be in operation within two weeks after you place your order. A certified HughesNet technician will call you to confirm your installation date and time.

(Do you still have questions about HughesNet? Do you want to upgrade your internet service? Talk to us. We can help.)

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TRAINING YOUR COMPUTER- LIKE A DOG

To most of us, computer coding is an inscrutable art. Code writers are the high priests of the Information Age, a technical elite whose work is so far beyond our understanding it seems to be magic. They even speak a different language.

This may be changing. With recent advances in artificial intelligence, your next computer might not need written software or OS code. Instead, you can look forward to training the machine- like a dog.

Conventional programming is writing of detailed, step-by-step instructions. Any errors or omissions in the code will affect the computer’s functions– and errors cannot be corrected without rewriting the code. Operating system developers, most notably Microsoft, often have to issue downloadable “patches” to repair defective code. Some systems, such as Windows 8, are so bloated and error-prone that they are beyond salvage, and have to be withdrawn from the market. The coding protocol is unforgiving. “Garbage in; garbage out”, is an industry watchword for a reason. The computer cannot learn, and cannot correct its mistakes. It can do only what the code has taught it to do.

With machine learning, your computer won’t be coded with a comprehensive set of instructions. It will be trained, and you very likely will have a big hand in training it. As Edward Monaghan wrote for Wired, “If you want to teach a neural network to recognize a cat, you don’t tell it to look for whiskers, ears, fur, and eyes. You simply show it thousands… of photos of cats, and eventually it works things out. If it keeps misclassifying foxes as cats, you don’t rewrite the code. You just keep coaching it.”

Machine learning has been with us, in concept, for several decades. It has become practical only recently, though, with revolutionary advances in the development of neural networks, systems modeled on the complex array of neurons in the brain. Machine learning already shapes much of our online activity. Skype Translator translates speech into different languages in real time. The collision-avoidance systems in self-driving cars are neural networks. So is the facial identification feature in Google Photos. Facebook’s algorithm for adjusting user news feeds is a neural network. Even Google’s world-dominating search engine, long a monument to the power of the human coder, has begun to depend heavily on machine learning. In February, Google signaled its commitment to it by replacing the veteran chief of its search engine with John Giannandrea, one of the world’s leading experts in neural networks and artificial intelligence.

Giannandrea hit the ground running. He has devoted Herculean effort to training Google’s engineers in machine learning. “By building these learning systems”, he said last fall, “we don’t have to write these rules anymore.”

Our increased reliance on neural networks will bring radical changes in the role and status of the programmer. The code writer understood precisely how the computer functioned, since he wrote every line of its instructions. It could do nothing he hadn’t told it to do. With machine learning, though, he’s not entirely sure how it performs its assigned tasks. His relationship with it is no longer that of a god exercising absolute rule over his creation; it’s more like the relationship between parent and child, or a dog owner and his dog. Such relationships always entail a certain amount of mystery.

Your computer’s training will not end with your purchase of it. You will teach it what functions you want, how you want them carried out, even the quirks in your personality. It will get continually ‘smarter’ as it adapts to your feedback. You will be training your computer for its entire operating life.

Danny Hillis, writing for The Journal of Design and Science, said, “Instead of being masters of our creations, we have learned to bargain with them, cajoling and guiding them in the general direction of our goals. We have built our own jungle- and it has a life of its own.”

(Training your computer will require a reliable internet connection. Is yours adequate? If it isn’t, talk to us. We can help.)

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FACES IN THE CROWD

Facial recognition software has come a long way in just a few years. Law enforcement agencies sometimes use it an an investigative tool. Some corporations use it as a screening tool; the faces of their employees are their ‘keys’ to company buildings. ‘Smart cameras’ recognize their faces and activate automated door to admit them.

There is a sinister aspect in facial recognition software, though. The people of Russia, for example, are finding out that it can be used for underhanded purposes. No matter where a person goes, anyone with the right connections or enough resources can track him down by picking his likeness out of a crowd photo.

FindFace, an advanced facial recognition platform launched a mere two months ago, enables 70% reliability in recognition of individual faces in photographs of crowds. The FindFace software compares the images to photos on Vkontakte, a social network popular in Russia and other states that were once in the Soviet Union. Vkontakte hosts more than 200 million accounts.

The Findface platform has seen phenomenally heavy use, given that it’s only two months old. It has already conducted more than three million searches of its database of about a billion photographs.

According to The Guardian, a London newspaper: “In future, the designers imagine a world where people walking past you on the street could find your social network profile by sneaking a photograph of you, and shops, advertisers, and police could pick your face out of crowds and track you down via social networks.”

Alexander Kabakov, one of the founders of FindFace, said that its facial recognition service could enhance dating and romance. “If you see someone you like”, he said, “you can photograph them, find their identity, and then send them a friend request.” If this seems a bit creepy to you, Kabakov said the platform need not involve surreptitious street photography. “It also looks for similar people”, he said. “So you could just upload a photo of a movie star you like, or your ex, and then find ten girls who look similar to her, and send them messages.” Well, okay, then. You have nothing to worry about, right?

A 70% success rate may not seem especially impressive, but with a bigger database, better software, and one or two hardware upgrades, the system’s accuracy could approach 100%. All faces, in all public places, will be vulnerable.

Despite Kabakov’s breezy insouciance about it, FindFace is a serious potential threat to privacy and freedom. The platform could be a boon to stalkers, rapists, and vengeful ex-lovers. Advertisers would find it valuable for targeting ads by viewer interest and location. Despotic regimes and political activists could use it to identify opposition demonstrators, exposing them to harassment, intimidation, assault, or even murder. FindFace even admits being willing to consider an offer from the FSB, the Russian security bureau that succeeded the Soviet KGB and that employs many of the same rough methods.

Kabakov brushes aside privacy concerns, insisting that we must accept living under nearly constant surveillance. “In today’s world we are surrounded by gadgets”, he said. “Our phones , televisions, fridges, everything around us is sending real-time information about us. Already we have full data on people’s movements, their interests, and so on. A person should understand that in the modern world he is under the spotlight of technology. You just have to live with that.”

There is no perfect way to protect our privacy. With every advance in computer and internet technology, it becomes even more difficult. If strangers can recognize us by tracing our likenesses in crowd photos to our social media accounts, our only sure protection lies in remaining homebound. No faces are completely safe. All faces may betray their owners.

We are not completely helpless, though. There are a few steps we can take to enhance our privacy.

Follow a few common-sense security protocols any time you’re online. And consider wearing dark sunglasses whenever you leave your house.

(Do you need better computer security? Do you need a more reliable internet connection? Talk to us. We can help.)

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Will robots replace us in the labor market? With accelerating automation, it may sometimes seem that our jobs are doomed.

Robots deliver pizza. Google has developed cars that drive themselves. This is only the tip of an emerging iceberg.

Two years ago, Momentum Machines developed a robot that could provide freshly ground and grilled hamburgers to order, with freshly sliced vegetable toppings, and customized meat or seasoning combinations. If a customer wants a meat patty with one-third bison and two-thirds pork, the robot will provide it. And it can produce 360 custom burgers per hour.

A few years ago, the Los Angeles Times began using an artificial intelligence application to write weather and earthquake updates. Afterward, the AI app wrote sports articles. The newspaper tested the app by asking readers to compare articles written by the robot with articles written by human reporters. Very few could tell the difference.

If these examples aren’t daunting enough, some researchers believe that artificial intelligence, the internet of things, and virtual reality will make most human jobs obsolete within a decade or two. Robots, we are told, will handle so many of the tasks that now require human labor, very few jobs are likely to survive. Machines will be able to learn, and will constantly become more competent. Eventually, they will know so much that they won’t need human supervision. Some analysts argue that we’ll need a universal minimum income, so the hordes of displaced workers can survive.

These frightening prophecies, though, are out of touch with reality. We’ve been through technological revolutions before- and they’ve paved the way for more jobs, not fewer.

By inventing mechanical molds and the movable type press, Johannes Gutenberg drove thousands of European scribes out of their vocations. But his invention created new industries. It made the mass production of books and pamphlets possible, and without it the newspaper industry would never have existed. The movable type press killed thousands of jobs, and created millions more.

The automation of agriculture was even more disruptive to labor markets. In the nineteenth century, four out of five American jobs were on ranches or farms. Today, fewer than 3% are. Automated farming freed millions of people for other, less onerous work at higher wages.

We are at the verge of the next great leap in technology. It will, no doubt, destroy tens of millions of jobs. Some workers are likely to be displaced for months, some for years. Transitions to the new information-based economy are going to be difficult. For every job the robots destroy, though, they’ll create several more. A 2011 study by the International Federation of Robotics found that the use of one million industrial robots led directly to creation of three million jobs. Increased use of robots usually fosters lower unemployment

The jobs that survive the robot revolution are likely to be the ones requiring creativity, empathy and human connections, negotiation and persuasion- and repair and maintenance of robots. We are certain to see more job openings in science, technology, engineering, and math fields. As robots handle more of our repetitive tasks, we will have more opportunity for easier and more interesting work.

Welcome the robots. More than likely, they are your friends.

(To benefit from automation, you need current information. For this, a reliable internet connection is necessary. Talk to us. We can help.)

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SOCIALIZATION VS SCHOOLING

If you think about removing your children from the formal school setting, you are likely to be peppered with questions about their social development. Regardless of how well your children fare academically, you are sure to be told that home schooling will retard their socialization.

What does socialization mean, though? Into what kind of setting will your children be socialized? What are the social  norms your children will be expected to adapt to?

Children who attend public schools may have little in common but age and the zip codes they live in. In school, they have little contact with people much older or much younger. The adults they meet are authority figures, who tell them what to do and how to do it. The students don’t develop social relationships with the adults. In such a setting children will learn the dominant values of their classmates, then- the values of people who don’t know more than they do. They soon learn about social conformity, bullying, toadying, cliquishness, and gossip. Is this what we want them to learn?

In the formal school setting, few children can escape becoming peer-dependent. Peer dependency undermines creativity, empathy, and independent thought. As children become more peer-dependent, they are likely to lose respect for adults, themselves, and even their peers.

Standard schooling leaves little opportunity for socialization, anyway. Children are in tightly-controlled environments for most of their waking hours. They are in class from 7:30 to 3:00, in after-school activities from 3:30 to 5:00, and forced into homework from 5:00 to 7:00. While in school, they are forced to sit down and shut up, walk in line (single file- arms at sides), and raise their hands for permission to speak or to go to the bathroom. They compete with each other for grades. Laggards are ‘slow’ or ‘stupid’. Children who learn easily risk being called ‘teacher’s pets’.

In workplaces and other adult settings, we are not segregated by age or last name. We are not required to raise hands when conversing or answering calls of nature. Many of our activities are unscheduled, or we control the schedules. In most adult settings, we’re not in direct competition with almost everyone we meet. Can formal schooling, then, prepare us adequately for the social settings we will face as adults?

Given the way formal schooling actually functions, shouldn’t we at least question its value as a tool for socialization?

In a future post, we will explore alternatives- and their impact on social development.

(To get the most out of alternative education, you need a good internet connection. Talk to us. We can help.)