AMERICAN KNOW-HOW, PART III:
DECLINE IS NOT AN OPTION
Can we restore American cultural self-confidence, and the supreme technical competence that came with it? If we can’t, could decline at least be gradual and comfortable?
The middle-aged ex-athlete, flabby and weak, eases into his lounge chair. Watching a college football game, he remembers his own glory as the captain of his football team, when his body was agile and strong. He rues his physical decline. The aging beauty queen, wrinkled and sagging, looks at an old photo of her triumphant moments as head cheerleader and homecoming queen, when her skin was flawless and her body was taut, and nearly every boy in her high school was in love with her. She puts the photo away and weeps over what can no longer be.
Is Decline Inevitable?
Our leading cultural critics are likewise haunted by nostalgia. They consider America’s former greatness, when she was by far the world’s dominant power. They remember when ‘American know-how’ was in vogue, and was taken seriously. They ask if it’s possible for us to recover the cultural self-confidence that led to putting a man on the moon, winning the Cold War, and unprecedented levels of prosperity. Noting the sad state of our universities and the seemingly intractable incompetence of our governments, they ask if our recent decline can be reversed.
Some say that decline is inevitable, but need not trouble us much. They cite the British Empire. In the middle of the twentieth century, the British people were tired of imperial responsibilities. They abandoned their empire, and seem not to be much worse off for it. They’ve maintained a modern economy, most of their freedom, and a reasonable level of social peace. Decline seems not to have harmed them.
Could we do the same? If America declines, could its senescence be comfortable? Could we sit on the sidelines of world affairs, watching other nations wrestle with the questions that used to vex us? Could we get used to being a bit player on the world stage?
Will Britain’s Experience Be Ours?
We shouldn’t see British experience as a harbinger of our own future. When Britain was ready to shrug off the responsibilities of empire, it could do so without calamitous disruption of the British way of life. It could pass the baton to us. We spoke the same language and had similar largely the same traditions, a nearly identical legal system, and more or less the same geopolitical interests.
(See Mark Steyn: The Unmaking of the American World)
The same deal is not going to be available to the American people. We won’t see a gradual and comfortable decline. If we fail, we’ll be displaced by people who not only don’t speak English, they don’t even use the Roman alphabet. The Magna Carta, Lex Rex, the Protestant Reformation, and the Enlightenment will mean nothing to them. How likely are they to respect our laws or freedoms?
American failure to lead would be disastrous for us. Foreigners who don’t understand us, and many of whom are bitterly hostile to our core values, will flood our shores by the tens of millions. Jihadists will make massive headway in bringing Western societies to heel. Russia or China could be the world’s leading power, making America a vassal state. This would bring a massive loss of freedom.
America’s decline could also mean there is no real world power left. There would be no effective peacekeeper, and the globe would be in chaos. There are now pirates off the coasts of Indonesia and Somalia. We could soon see large numbers of pirates off the coasts of California and Florida. The external chaos would be accompanied by internal chaos. Tribalism would replace American identity, and the country would become spectacularly violent. The chaotic conditions would make an advanced economy impossible, and we would live under much more primitive conditions. Famine and pestilence would be frequent. Survivors would see hardship few Americans have known since the nineteenth century. Most of us wouldn’t survive to old age.
Will the Next Ten Years Be Critical?
The world offers no substitute for American leadership. Either we will recover ‘American Know-How’- the confident spirit and the accompanying technical competence- or we will face calamity. America as we’ve known it will no longer exist.
I believe the next ten years are critical. What we do during this period will determine whether we stand or fall.
Our condition is grim, but far from hopeless. We can recover- even surpass- our former vigor. It won’t be easy, but it’s within our ability.
In a future post, I’ll spell out a few steps for recovery. Watch this space.
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